But there’s zero wrong with that.
We’re obsessed with mocks until we’re on the clock because they represent hope. Every player is a stud, and no one’s a bust until every team selects a player in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft on Thursday night.
You can guarantee no team is locked into a prospect — even at No. 1 — given the fact that most of the picks are affected by the ones that come right before. In this final mock, it’s time to hedge bets and play the percentages.
NFL Draft: Top 50 prospects | Full Big Board
NFL Mock Draft 2017
1. Cleveland Browns
Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M: 99 percent Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina: 1 percent
There will be a moment when the Browns think they need to force an unworthy franchise passer this high. That will pass when they know they’ve got a special pass rusher.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford: 70 percent Jamal Adams, S, LSU: 20 percent Trubisky: 10 percent
John Lynch has been closing in on the freakish defensive line prospect from his alma mater, but Adams will get good consideration, too, with QB on the backburner early.
3. Chicago Bears
Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State: 60 percent Adams: 25 percent Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State: 15 percent
It’s getting pretty clear the Bears will go for secondary help first with the values lining up nicely. The best corner by far in this class trumps safety for them.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 60 percent Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama: 20 percent Adams: 10 percent O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama: 10 percent
The force is strong with the Jaguars and Fournette, but Allen and Adams would also work nicely with their more physical mindset. Howard is an intriguing wild card.
5. Tennessee Titans
Adams: 30 percent Allen: 30 percent Lattimore: 30 percent Hooker: 5 percent Thomas: 5 percent
Adams has been a big name in Nashville at the top, and it’s high time to get one on the field for Dick LeBeau. The Titans are almost as secondary tied as Chicago early, with Allen being the exception.
6. New York Jets
Trubisky: 20 percent Deshaun Watson, QB: 20 percent Lattimore: 20 percent Adams: 20 percent Hooker: 10 percent Howard: 10 percent
The Jets are a key swing pick because of their needs in the secondary vs. their desperation at QB. Trubisky clips Watson at the tape.
7. Los Angeles Chargers
Hooker: 80 percent Allen: 10 percent The remaining field: 10 percent
The Chargers have been hooked on Hooker’s playmaking skill set for a while. It would take him going earlier to throw off this pairing.
8. Carolina Panthers
Howard: 30 percent Fournette: 30 percent Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 30 percent Thomas: 5 percent Allen: 5 percent
The Panthers will give offense significantly more consideration than defense to help Cam Newton away from the offensive line. If Fournette is gone, it’s a tough toss-up between two special athletes, Howard and McCaffrey.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Reuben Foster, ILB, Bengals: 40 percent Allen: 30 percent Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee: 10 percent Wide receiver: 20 percent
Foster is exactly what the Bengals need: a thumper in the middle who won’t disappoint and will be a defensive fixture for several seasons. That will cause Allen to keep sliding.
10. Buffalo Bills
Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan: 30 percent Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: 25 percent Howard: 20 percent Trubisky: 15 percent A defensive player: 10 percent
The Bills should zone in on a reliable receiver well ahead of a quarterback. Davis is looking like the best guy available for their offensive scheme.
11. New Orleans Saints
Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama: 30 percent Foster: 20 percent Barnett: 20 percent Another cornerback: 10 percent Another defensive lineman: 10 percent An offensive player: 10: percent
Humphrey keeps bumping up boards as other corners seem to have more issues and fade. With how things shake out early, he lines up as the best option for a Saints need.
12. Cleveland Browns
Watson: 30 percent Trubisky: 30 percent Howard: 30 percent A defensive player: 10 percent
For all this talk about Trubisky, unless they take him at No. 1 or move up from this pick, the Browns can’t sit and expect to get him at No. 12. Watson has the bigger upside, anyway, for a team that still won’t win for a while.
13. Arizona Cardinals
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 90 percent Davis: 5 percent Another wide receiver or QB: 5 percent
The Cards are honing in Mahomes to groom as Bruce Arians’ replacement for Carson Palmer. He’s close to a stone-cold lock now.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
McCaffrey: 25 percent Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State: 25 percent Barnett: 25 percent Another cornerback: 25 percent
The Eagles are one of the teams that shouldn’t eliminate Conley from their board, but they should run to turn in their card if McCaffrey is available.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Haason Reddick, LB, Temple: 40 percent Foster: 20 percent Barnett: 20 percent Another defensive edge player: 20 percent
The Colts need guys who can disrupt things upfield inside and out. Reddick in particular can be transcendent in their version of the 3-4. This is the ideal fit, assuming he’s still on the board.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: 40 percent Davis: 30 percent Howard: 15 percent A cornerback: 15 percent
Williams on many boards is the best and most complete receiver in the draft. The Ravens shouldn’t shy away from the position despite recent disappointments. Pass-catcher dominates the thinking overall here.
17. Washington Redskins
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 25 percent A linebacker: 25 percent A defensive lineman: 20 percent Another running back: 10 percent A wide receiver: 10 percent A quarterback: 10 percent
The Redskins are facing a major swing vote. At this point, it’s a tricky sell to repeal and replace Cook as the safest on-field prospect to put on the card.
18. Tennessee Titans
Allen: 40 percent John Ross, WR, Washington: 40 percent A defensive player: 10 percent Davis: 5 percent Williams: 5 percent
There’s a real chance Allen, with his shoulder issues, drops several spots. That would make the Titans stray away from Ross and double up to upgrade two very weak spots on the defense.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Barnett: 50 percent Cook: 40 percent A safety: 10 percent
If Washington doesn’t take Cook, Tampa Bay will have an extremely hard decision between a dire defensive need at end and a workhorse back it can reunite with Jameis Winston.
20. Denver Broncos
Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin: 70 percent Forrest Lamp, G/OT, Western Kentucky: 10 percent Garett Bolles, OT, Utah: 10 percent A tight end: 10 percent
The Broncos settle on Ramczyk over Bolles and Lamp in the end because he’s the most polished and accomplished offensive lineman in this class to help them solve tackle.
21. Detroit Lions
Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan: 25 percent T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin: 20 percent Charles Harris, DE, Missouri: 20 percent Jarrad Davis, ILB, Florida: 20 percent Another defensive player: 15 percent
The Lions thinking anything other than defensive front seven help would be shocking. Charlton offers the most pass-rush upside in relation to the value of this pick.
22. Miami Dolphins
Lamp: 60 percent A defensive end: 15 percent A linebacker: 15 percent A cornerback: 10 percent
The Dolphins go back to the offensive line well after lucking out with Laremy Tunsil’s slide last year. Lamp edges out the best defensive player available.
23. New York Giants
Bolles: 60 percent Ramczyk: 20 percent Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama: 10 percent David Njoku, TE, Miami: 10 percent
The Giants will hope the Broncos reverse course again and take Bolles, instead. But his high athletic upside for left tackle is by no means a consolation. Njoku would be too much of a luxury pick at No. 23.
24. Oakland Raiders
Davis: 70 percent Conley: 10 percent Another linebacker: 10 percent Another cornerback: 5 percent A defensive lineman: 5 percent
The Raiders need that pure clean-up man at inside linebacker to complement Khalil Mack. It will be easy to take Davis once Foster is long gone.
25. Houston Texans
Davis Webb, QB, California: 30 percent Robinson: 20 percent Another offensive lineman: 30 percent Another quarterback: 20 percent
Houston might need to reach a little bit for QB, because it can’t assume either Webb or DeShone Kizer will fall to the second round for them after Trubisky, Watson and Mahomes go in the first.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Robinson: 30 percent Another offensive lineman: 30 percent Kevin King, CB, Washington: 20 percent Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut: 20 percent
Seattle will think long and local about corner, but Robinson sliding here would be too hard to ignore.
27. Kansas City Chiefs
King: 20 percent Zach Cunningham, OLB, Vanderbilt: 20 percent Another outside linebacker: 20 percent An inside linebacker: 20 percent Another cornerback: 20 percent
Corner and linebacker are neck and neck for the Chiefs, but King, out of the same program as Marcus Peters, will be desirable to pair with Peters.
NFL DRAFT: Worst busts | All-time steals
28. Dallas Cowboys
Harris: 20 percent Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA: 20 percent Watt: 20 percent Another edge rusher: 20 percent A cornerback: 20 percent
The Cowboys will think about McKinley and Watt as hybrid players for their defense, but Harris, good enough to go before No. 25, lines up as a terrific value for a position need.
29. Green Bay Packers
Watt: 30 percent A cornerback: 20 percent Another linebacker: 20 percent A defensive lineman: 20 percent A running back: 10 percent
Turning down the opportunity to keep the younger Watt and his edge motor in Wisconsin will be difficult, as he might end up the best defensive value in the first round.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 20 percent Melifonwu: 20 percent Another defensive back: 20 percent A tight end: 20 percent A linebacker: 10 percent A quarterback: 10 percent
The Steelers can’t help but think defense in the first round, but they won’t completely rule out offensive skill for value’s sake. Peppers and Melifonwu are the leaders to help solve safety.
31. Atlanta Falcons
McKinley: 20 percent Lamp: 20 percent Another offensive lineman: 20 percent Another edge rusher: 20 percent A defensive back: 20 percent
The Falcons will prioritize more pass-rush help over all else. Based on who’s off the board, McKinley looks like the best means toward that end.
32. New Orleans Saints
Ross: 25 percent A second cornerback: 25 percent A safety: 25 percent An edge rusher: 25 percent
The shocker of the first round will be when Ross, the Combine’s speediest prospect, lingers on the board. There’s a good chance the Saints steal their next Brandin Cooks at No. 32.
